Meadowfoam Fly

Cameren Moran
CPS

We are beginning to see some Meadow Foam Flies around but nothing to alarming yet. If you happen to stop by a trap and see the amount of insects stuck to it you may be surprised but these are not all meadow foam flies.

The meadow foam fly is about 3mm long and can range from a brown to even a Grey color. One of the easiest ways to identify is by the red eyes on the fly.


This info was taken from the an extension publication that i recently posted in my last bit about the meadow foam fly.


We will continue to monitor these traps.

Any further questions about this pest? Contact your CPS field man.

Grain Market Report: 27Jan2011

Tanner Sheahan
CPS Tangent

Here are the market reports for the last couple days.  Wheat is strong right now!  Portland prices in Dan's report today range from $8.40-$8.55 from now through May with July pricing at $8.20.  Here are the summaries from the last couple days.

24Jan2011
Export sales keep running strong. The US sold 11.5 myn mt of beans to China on the Chinese visit. World prices for food are not done rising. 1 gov’t (Yemen) has already paid the price. Other countries have taken notice (Algeria booked a huge sum of wheat). One thing of concern is what is ‘necessary’ vs. trying to build something of a ‘cushion’ of stocks. Price of rice in Indonesia is up 30% vs. lyr. Again, we had a series of weather events that struck primary production areas and we have seen world stocks go from ‘huge’ to ‘worrisome’. In fact the vast majority of milling wheat is now in the US.
Informa came out with their corn acreage estimates: 90.9 myn acres. So what’s that mean? Well if we pencil whip it, heres how the numbers shake out: 90.9 myn acres minus the abandonment (usually about 8.5%) leaves us with 83.1 myn harvested acres. We have to use something for yield, so let’s use last year’s 153 bpa. Gives us a production of 12.7 byn bu plus our est c/o of 745 myn bu leaves us with 13.46 byn bu supply. IF usage is unch’d at 13.43 byn bu…ok you can see the problem…that only leaves 30 myn bu. SOMETHING must change for c/o into 2012. What/ where are the biggest changes likely to come? Weather/ production is always exciting to predict. So are politics, but a review of the ethanol blenders credits/ subsidies (due to expire 12/31/11) is VERY likely. IF subsidies are cut/ eliminated and we see a 20% reduction of corn used for ethanol that frees up something like 1 byn bu….get familiar with these numbers, we will be working with them for the next 8+ months. Informa also has wheat up 4 myn acres…pencil whipping with ave production numbers only gives us an additional 144 myn bu of wheat. COT report showed the specs backing off of wheat a little, while index funds added 10 myn bu. Specs have been big buyers of corn. They are now holding 2.045 byn bu (record position). Clearly corn futures are overbought and due for some correction/ consolidation….but we still haven’t gotten high enough to effectively ration use.
China’s Shandong province hasn’t seen rain in 4 months. Shandong and Henan are 2 of the major production areas (map attached). Spring crops are starting to fail. One article said that 210m people and 107 animals now rely solely on water deliveries from fire trucks for survival. Beijing has not received snow yet this winter.
Click to enlarge picture

25Jan2011
US $ is up from 5 month lows. Futures were down hard overnight with corn off 9 and wheats down 12+. Overall very little new news. Export inspections showed good numbers for wheat with 25.8 myn bu shipped (4.1 myn SWW, 3.9 SRW, 10.3 HRW and 4.1 DNS). Corn shipments were ‘ok’ at 23 myn bu.
27Jan2011
Futures are off this morning, giving some back. Corn is off about a nickel, red wheats were down 5-8 but are making an early morning come back. Chic wheat if off just a touch. Taiwan has lowered their import duties help keep food inflation in check. SK reduced their import duties from 25% to 0 on the first 60m mt or until June. Also heard Chinese vegi’s are up 12% in the last week. The Chinese did sell 10% of their auction allotment of corn. Still lots of wheat tenders working. Algeria just bot 29.4 myn bu of optional origin (to be delivered within next 3 months). Iraq, Iran, Saudi, Yemen are still looking. Egypt’s GASC says that stocks are sufficient for the next 6 months. Problem is, will prices be higher (depends on world weather). Consensus is that whatever damage was done to the Argie corn crop was already done, weather in the foreseeable future looks good. Brazil is expected to have a record bean crop unless late rains compromise it. Right now they are expected to harvest about 70 myn mt vs. an estimated 68.4 in Dec. Baltic Index down 3.9% last night. S&P cuts Japan’s credit score…the first time since ’02.
             Sales report showed mediocre corn sales of only 16.2 myn bu. The low end of trade guesses was about 23.6 myn bu. Ethanol margins are getting THIN. Although so far no announcement of plant shutdowns. Between ethanol subsidies and the value of DDG’s they are still in the black. In fact the EU is considering filing a complaint vs. US ethanol. The role of subsidies has US ethanol the cheapest source in the world on a delivered basis. Part of the problem with the potential complaint though is, that much of the EU ethanol is typically made out of lower grade wheat, and wheat in general is too valuable to make ethanol out of. Still, we could be bumping against pretty solid overhead resistance at least in the short term of corn…and although exports sales are off, they are not off enough yet to do any significant good to the corn S&D’s. Wheat sales were strong as expected at 32.8 myn bu…just under market expectations of 33.3 myn bu. The world market is still strong for quality wheat, and the world’s largest supply of quality wheat is in the US. Keep in mind these S&D numbers though: US stocks to use is 33%. SWW carryouts this year are expected to be 83 myn bu (they were 26 myn bu in ’07-08). ENDING world wheat stocks are expected to be 177.9 myn mt this year vs. 197.4 last year and 122.7 in ’07-08.
***Didja Know: 2011 is an unusual year: we will have 4 dates 1/1/11, 1/11/11, 11/1/11 and 11/11/11. Also try this out: take the last 2 digits of the year you were born, add that number to what your age will be after your birthday this year and it will equal 111.   

Meadowfoam Fly

Cameren Moran

CPS

Im sure those of you with meadow foam have noticed
our yellow sticky traps for monitoring Scaptomyza Fly (meadowfoam fly).  We will be checking these often to monitor the levels of the fly so we can spray before they become a problem.


In the past we have not seen fly levels high enough to treat until the middle of February. With that said this does not mean that we may not see numbers high enough for treatment. I found a great extension publication about the fly published in 2000 by Oregon State University. http://extension.oregonstate.edu/catalog/html/em/em8760/. This explains the life, detection, monitoring, and control of the meadow foam fly.

If you have any questions regarding this varmint and when to spray your meadow foam be sure to talk to your CPS field man.


Rely New formulation

Jason Bennett
CPS Tangent

Just wanted to give everybody a heads up last fall Bayer Crop Science, the manufacturer of Rely, changed the formulation once again. If you used Rely last year you used Rely 200, now it is called Rely 280. The chart at the bottom gives a quick reference from the Rely that first came out to what we are using now. The Rates listed below are the high rates used in the spring.
Rely 3pt/a Old Rely Rate
Rely 200 1.8pt/a Last Year Rely Rate
Rely 280 1.25pt/a New Rely Rate

If you are going to use up some old product this spring make sure you check with your fieldman to see what rate the old product needs to be applied at.

Grain Market Report: 21Jan2011

Tanner Sheahan
Tangent CPS

Didn't get today's report until this evening when I got back to the office.  Prompt prices are $8.00 for Feb-May then drop off to $7.95 for June.  New crop for 2011 is at $7.90 today.  USDA is confirming these prices.

The Columbia River has been closed since the about the first of December but will reopen around the middle of March.  So, what's wheat going to do when the river reopens?   Leave your comments below...

21Jan2011

Informa will release their next guess on what the US acreage profile will be later today. Export sales reports were AWESOME this morning. Traders were hoping for corn sales of 21.6 to 33.5 myn bu and we ended with 40 myn bu. Remember there is always a ‘lag’ between sales and shipments, but with the world situation as it is, it sure looks like all sales today will be lifted ex the US….Wheat sales were also excellent. Again traders were hoping for 11.8 to 27.5 myn bu, but we went over the top at 38.7 myn bu. Jordan booked another 5.5 myn bu. The EU appears to be just about ‘tapped’ out of exportable quanities of ‘milling’ grade wheat. Argie posts are closed to wheat/ corn. With another stroke of the political pen, the EPA has once again changed the game by allowing E-15 on vehicles from 2001-06. IF a 15% blend was available and sold it increases ethanol use/ blend by 50% and would require 7.5 byn bu of corn…that is a ‘most optimistic’ scenario…won’t happen, but there will be increased ethanol usage, at least until the blenders credits and subsidies are re-visited….there will also be lawsuits. Meteorologists are now expecting with current strength of La Nina that it would linger for another 3 months OR perhaps even form a ‘double event’…which is pretty rare.
           China will auction off 70.8 myn bu of corn from reserves. Argie corn crop estimates are down about 4 myn mt vs. the last USDA estimate. USDA has em at 23.5 myn mt, latest Argie guess is 19.5. Recent rains will definitely help with bean production, and stem corn losses. Today it appears that whatever losses Argie corn will suffer happened a month or so ago. Chinese wheat purch of Aussie wheat is very good news for the Aussie’s but what’s it mean for everything else? It is consumptive demand and illustrates that Chinese demand is growing much faster than production (severe drought has not been broken…and has actually intensified in the northern provinces). It also removes wheat from the world S&D equations.
***Didja Know: 81% of the people who drown after falling through ice, are in water less than 3’ deep? The most common injury to snow skiers is a dislocated shoulder….and for you world travelers…statistically it is safer to travel on the roof a train in India, than in the back of rickshaw in Shanghai…
HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND!!!!

Oregon State Willamette Valley Field Crops Web Page

Joe Moade
CPS Tangent

Recently at the 50th Ryegrass Growers Association meeting John Hart highlighted the Willamette Valley Field Crops Web page. One of the highlights is the updated OSU Enterprise Budgets for our crops. The page has other useful information as well.


I have included the link below for your convenience.

Oregon State Willamette Valley Field Crops Web Page

Grain Market Report 20Jan2011

Tanner Sheahan
CPS Tangent

Some of you have asked me where I am getting the prices I summarize.  The short answer is "from Dan's report," but I thought I'd ask Dan for his official answer to that question.


Where do those prices come from? 
They are a ‘composite’ of what we believe to be ‘tradeable’ Portland bids. I say ‘tradeable’ because with the volatility, exporters values can vary widely. With the river being down, there are times when Portland is bidding enough premium to pay the difference on rail freight. Otherwise what some Co-ops are doing is taking the April bid and subtracting a nickel per month to cover storage and interest. SO if April is $8 March is 7.95, Feb is 7.90, Jan is 7.85. When Portland gets tight, the price goes up and if it goes up enough to cover the extra cost of rail…it goes rail.

18Jan2011

Strange things can happen when grain prices hit these altitudes. Best to have a chute nearby. New crop wheat values can vary by as much as a $1 depending on point of delivery…I don’t see this changing soon, so call for updates. Lots of ‘tire kickers’ in checking out the wheat prices. Futures opened sharply higher on news that Algeria (food riots last week) bit the bullet and bot 22-27 myn bu of ‘optional origin’ wheat at what works out to about $9.80/ bu delivered. The market responded sharply to the heavy purch. Jordan, Syria, Japan (2 tenders) Egypt, Iraq, Indo, Malaysia etc are all in. Corn is also getting some close looks. It feels like we are 1 bad harvest someplace from repeating 2007. Argie farmers will begin their strike (price positive for us) against selling especially corn and wheat. French dock workers are also striking. Will slow/ stop shipments of everything but oil. The $$ is down vs. the Euro on news that Russia will buy up some Euro debt. ‘Rebalancing’ seems pretty well complete. If so, the funds have shed about 100 myn bu of Chic  wheat, and 300 myn bu of Chic corn. The funds were running about 25-27% of the OI in Chic corn that number as of the last COT report is now down to 15.1%.
           Int’l: Droughty conditions continue in China. 2.2 myn people are short of drinking water, and it has impacted the major grain (wheat) producing provinces in the Central/ North of Shandong and Henan. Precip levels are 20-90% LESS than last year and are impacting nearly 10 myn acres of wheat production. Floods continue in Aussie. Aussie Bureau of Meteorology says La Nina likely at a peak, but they expect it to hang around at least a couple more months. See pic attached…notice the grain bunker. Argie did get some decent rain over the weekend. Those close to the situation say they will be helpful to beans, but not do the corn much good (damage already done). SK gov’t says they have culled about 15% of the pig and cattle inventory to battle foot/ mouth disease. They are also dealing with bird flu in the poultry. Chinese gov’t is back to saying they WILL import corn. This has gone back and forth…the thing is, if you look at the numbers there simply is no way they can avoid it. Demand is simply much bigger than production. They need to continue to import to keep prices in check.

Didja Know: Perseverance will put you at 136%!
20Jan2011

Not a lot of market shaking news this morning. $$ is up this morning. Foreign gov’t seem to resigning themselves that things are what they are. It doesn’t look like Russia will open up wheat exports anytime soon. The Aussies have been hit with record floods. As you could see by the pictures that are being circulated, even some of the wheat that was harvested is now under threat/ or out right loss to floods. Latest guess I saw put the Aussie crop at 23.3 myn bu and 9.24 of it LESS than milling quality, with losses continuing to mount daily. Where will replacement stocks come from? Winter crops in the field through most of US don’t look good today. South plains are expecting to get 1-3" snow. Won’t amount to much in the way of precip, but may help with the next blast of arctic air.                  Our export shipments were down the last couple weeks corn shipments have been running about 20 to 22 myn bu, which is way behind the USDA numbers…but remember that China is ‘out there in the weeds’ and could if they turn to buyers the point is mute. Wheat numbers are still running fairly strong with 21.6 myn bu shipped last week: 5.5 HRW, 12.1 DNS then about 1.5 SWW. Turkey did buy 5.3 myn bu of HRW last night.
We know that corn has to go ‘too high’. Basis levels are starting show stress cracks and weaken. Chinese gov’t has ordered processors to stop buying corn from growers, they also booked 5.5 myn bu of Aussie feed wheat. On the red wheats, DNS basis levels are steady to strong as the pull for high quality DNS is strong, even with futures up. HRW basis levels have been steady, with futures doing most of the work. Informa will release their latest acreage estimates tomorrow.
***Didja Know: 1 Blood donation can save up to 3 lives. Only 8% of the eligible population of the US donates blood. Less than 30% of the people that donate blood once, will ever give again. Every 2 seconds someone in the US needs blood. (From the ARC).

Upcoming Meetings: Nut Growers, Ag Appreciation Breakfast

Tanner Sheahan
CPS Tangent

Here are two meetings coming up in the next couple weeks.  If there are other meetings we should post feel free to contact me or tell your CPS Fieldman.  You can use the email in the left side-bar.

96th Annual Nut Growers Society Meeting
Wednesday January 26th, 2011
8:00 AM
Red Lion, Grand Ballroom
Jantzen Beach, Oregon

This meeting coincides with the Northwest Ag Show at the Portland Expo Center so you can check out the booths and equipment while you're up there.



Albany Chamber of Commerce Ag Appreciation Breakfast
Tuesday February 8th, 2011
7:00 AM
Linn County Expo Center
Albany, Oregon

The Tangent fieldmen have helped serve breakfast at this event every year for the last several years.  The food is great and the topics are always interesting.  We also have some tickets available for customers so talk to your CPS fieldman if you want to attend.

Plot Tour: Bayer Crop Science (Video)

Tanner Sheahan
CPS Tangent

It was a great day for a plot tour yesterday.  The Tangent group went out with Barry Duerk of Bayer Crop Science to take a second look at some research plots for a new product, Alion, that Bayer will be releasing in the next couple years.  It looks like we may have a "tree nut and vine" label for sometime later this year but more research is needed to support a grass seed label.  Alion will most likely go through the IR4 program so it will be essential to have industry support to get a grass seed label.  We need new chemical tools in the grass seed market but in many cases we really need the support of growers to move forward with research and to pursue labels.

Alion plot in carbon seeded perennial ryegrass, January 2011
Alion plot, established perennial ryegrass, January 2011
 Here's a word from Barry Duerk of Bayer Crop Science about Alion.  (Thanks to Jason Bennett for being the first Tangent guy on video for the blog.)


The weather was not nearly as nice the first time we looked at these plots back in December of 2010.  Rainy, windy, swampy...the plots looked good though. 

Alion Plots on established Perennial Ryegrass, December 2010.
Alion trial on tall fescue, December 2010.
Thanks to Seth Gersdorf of Bayer for doing the research so we can learn about these products before the labels come out.  Talk to your CPS fieldman for more information or if you would like to see results from this trial.

Oregon Ryegrass Growers Association Meeting

Jason Bennett
CPS Tangent

Wednesday, January 19th is the Oregon Ryegrass Growers Association Annual Meeting. The meeting will be held at Linn County Fair & Expo Center. Here is a copy of the agenda. If you have any questions you can contact the Linn County Extension office at 541-967-3871, or talk to your CPS fieldman.

Grain Market Reports 14Jan2011

Tanner Sheahan
CPS Tangent

Here are the Grain Market reports from Dan Steiner of PGG for the last couple days.  SWW prices in Portland for Jan-May run from $7.65-$7.80 with N/C for 2011 hitting $7.70.  Chicago 2011/12 futures prices for SRW are about $0.40-0.50 higher than current prices for May delivery.  Maybe looking at strong commodity prices for a while yet?

As a reminder, and for new readers, the prices I summarize are coming from Dan's original report that can always be found on the Pendleton Grain Growers website.  There is bound to be some discrepancies depending on who and when you call.  I have heard, however, if you show up in person with a bag of fun-sized Snickers you can get a better price...not really.

Side note: Pat's previous post on world population is echoed loudly in these market reports on a daily basis.  There is, at this time anyway, widespread uneasiness in regards to a world food supply that will only get tighter as time goes by.

13Jan2011

Futures prices continue to climb, with lots of ‘friendly’ information out there. Traders are still pondering what the 754 myn bu carryout actually means…what it boils down to is 5.5% Stocks to Use which is the tightest since 95-96. Corn consumption for the US this year is at a rate of 1 byn bu MORE than 2010 production. First ¼ usage was 451 myn bu MORE than 1st ¼ last year. Besides which, there is still concern about the ‘300 million’ missing bu from the Sept report. Many believe that those or at least many of those bushels were actually NEW CROP bushels shipped before the September report. If true it would further tighten the supply. Ethanol has not gotten bad press…. YET… it will come. Food inflation, export bans etc it is only a matter of time. The one thing hanging over new crop prices is the tax credits/ subsidies expire 12/31/11. No one knows what the political climate will be like, or what corn production will be, but today it is hard to imagine that serious cuts to those subsidies won’t happen, drastically altering the direction of the 2011 crop…so be careful with new crop. As for old crop, still no evidence of rationing…it simply HAS TO HAPPEN. Sales reports this morning showed mediocre wheat sales of only 5.4 myn bu (but a large sale last night (5.7 myn bu) already has next week looking sharply better. Corn sales continue to churn in mid range of traders guesses of 20 myn bu. Chinese gov’t still says they don’t expect to import large quantities of corn. The market simply does not believe it at this time, the pressure to contain prices is too high. Wheat appears to be along for the ride, but quality is king right now, and the world’s best supply of high quality wheat is right here in the US.
           Aussie floods are far from over. Ports are closed, not only halting coal but also wheat shipments. Indonesia is knocking on our door, looking to fill gaps while the floods rage on. ½ of Indonesian wheat comes from Aussie. Gavilon received accreditation to export wheat from Aussie, that makes the total 26 exporters, where a short time ago it was 1. The 1 (AWB) is in negotiations to sell out to Cargill (who by the way posted profits up 16% last ¼). Consolidation at this stage is inevitable. The farmers like the options and are pressing to stop the sale. Argie gov’t wants to curb exports to help suppress domestic prices. Farmers obviously aren’t in favor and have offered to strike for a week in protest. Paki gov’t sold 18 myn bu of wheat to Paki and Myanmar.

***Didja Know: The only thing that can destroy a diamond is extreme, intense heat. The natural phenomenon that produces ‘aurora borealis and australis borealis’ produces sound waves that only wolves and dingoes can hear.   
14Jan2011

Futures giving up ground this morning as traders will to take some profit, consolidate the market and head into a 3 day weekend (MLK holiday Monday). Sorry no markets Monday. Its been a positive week and we know a bit more about the world S&D’s than we did a week ago. Crude oil was up a $1 in early trading, and even though corn traded sharply lower, bounced back and now is only down by a marginal amount. Wheat is getting beat up, but .20 moves are becoming common place. Chinese Gov’t increased bank requirements again (4th time in last 2 months). You can almost hear inflation in some parts of the world. Things will get very dicey if the US suffers some sort of weather calamity this summer.
           SAM weather appears to be more ‘normal’ heading into the weekend with the major production areas in Brazil not only getting good precip, but temps are expected to be in the mid 80’s. Heavy flooding is causing huge problems, but so far as Ag, has not been a problem. Argie will get more rain and cooler temps. It now looks like the worse may be behind them on the corn and bean crop. So whatever damage was done was done a week or 2 ago. We won’t fully know that till the crop gets closer to harvest.
           Interesting article this morning talked about the patents expiring on some 2 dozen varieties of GMO products. One of the big issues to be dealt with is, there is a big difference between holding the patent and holding the ‘foreign approval of that patent’. Will those varieties be accepted as ‘generic’ or will each ‘holder’ of the material need to seek approval before export. With world stocks as tight as they are, things OUGHT to move through the political channels easier.

Didja Know: What’s it mean to give more than 100%? IF you gave each letter of the alphabet a number corresponding to its place in the alphabet…where A = 1, B=2 etc….KNOWLEDGE scores a 96, Hardwork gets a score of 98. So even though hard work and knowledge will almost get you there just not quite…Attitude gets you a score of 100. There is one thing that will put you over the top….

Think About World Population

Pat Boren
CPS Tangent

Think about the world population
  • There are more than twice as many people on the planet today as there were in 1960.  The world population has never doubled this fast .
  • It is estimated the world population will reach 7 billion sometime in 2011.
  • The era of explosive population growth is expected to end in 2050.   The population is expected to be 9 billion people at that time (more or less depending on birth rates).
  • In China the life expectancy went from 41 years in 1952 to 73 years  today.
  • There are currently 21 cities with populations larger than 10 million.

Think about agriculture and the world population
  • From 1950 to 1984 the world grain production increased 250%.  This was accomplished because the Green Revolution introduced improved varieties, commercial fertilizer, crop production chemicals and improved irrigation methods.
  • The world population has increased 4 billion since the beginning of the Green Revolution while the number of undernourished people decreased.
  • It is estimated that food production will need to increase 70% to feed 2.3 billion more people by 2050.
Bottom Line
There is a huge challenge to feed the world in the coming years.  Land, water, energy, minerals are limited and may be at peak currently.  The huge increases in food productivity may be difficult to maintain into the future.  Currently, there are references in the public media to food crisis, food riots, shortages and price increases.  We have seen volatility in commodity supplies and pricing because of low world inventories.  No one can predict the future but the trend looks like farmers have a great challenge and opportunity ahead.

Grain Market Reports 12Jan2011

Tanner Sheahan
CPS Tangent

 Here are the grain market reports from Dan Steiner for the last couple days.  USDA came out with their January report but as you probably realize I've had some trouble hosting documents lately.  So, I'll try posting it up here.  There are four pages to that report, click the tabs at the bottom of the page. If the link doesn't work just shoot me an email and I'll send you a copy.  Thanks to Dan for sending that out to us.

Wheat prices in Dan's report for today ranged from $7.60-$7.80 for January-May with N/C for 2011 hitting $7.50.

11Jan2011:

Wow what a busy day! Actually there is no ‘NEW’ news…more of churning of the same old stuff, but we do have the USDA report tomorrow, and lots and lots of market chatter about the potential implications. Average trade guess has corn carryouts estimated at 778 myn bu, with wheat carryouts at 842. Markets are building premiums for tomorrow’s report, and historically the Jan report has been a market mover! Japan is tendering for wheat tonight. US ethanol tariffs are coming under fire and some in Congress believe that they are illegal. Brazil, who has already won a WTO case vs. the US on cotton is considering taking the US to WTO on ethanol tariffs.
               We mentioned the other day about the BDI (Baltic Dry Index) and the low levels that they have been trading at. There are number of reasons for this: Floods in Aussie shutting down up to 1/2 of the worlds coal mining, slower world economies, but one other thing I wasn’t aware of till this morning. There are about 400 new ships under entering the marketplace between 2010/11. This is roughly a 40% increase in the last 2 years. The floods continue in Aussie. Coal and rail movements are of course shut down, with ‘force majeure’ being declared weeks ago. An estimated $1 byn in Aussie Ag crops have been lost.
             Other int’l news: French Ag Minister is calling for stricter regs on commodity specs. The fact that inflation will continue and perhaps become rampant is a major concern. Not only are food companies and grain companies hedging, but the market is also open to speculators who can wind the commodity markets to levels not imagined a short time ago. Spec limits are not new, but this is coming from a new direction. Spec activity in the market place can fuel precisely the same type of action that hoarding does. Gov’t of Kazakhstan says they expect food inflation to stabilize in the next few months…not sure why they think so…there is no significant harvest going to happen in the next few months. SAM is looking cooler/ wetter through the weekend. There are at least 2 more systems that will work through Argie/ Brazil. SK (South Korea) will try to set up a private firm to directly procure grain. They have become concerned about the level of ‘concentration’ of international grain companies, and are concerned about their level of control in the marketplace.
 12Jan2011:

USDA report provided the fuel for this mornings rally. The January reports have a long history of being
"big market movers". This one was no exception.
Lets start with Corn: USDA took average corn yields DOWN another 1.5 bpa taking another 97 myn bu off the production. Corn used for ethanol was ramped up another 100 myn bu, exports left unchd and feed usage down 100 myn bu. Corn clearly has not rallied enough to curb demand, and ending carryouts were tightened down another 97 myn bu to 754 myn bu. RESULT corn up the limit early but now only up 24!
Wheat: Wheat report was mostly neutral with just minor tweaks. Food usage was down 10 myn bu, with exports increased a total of 50 myn bu: HRW got bumped 15 myn bu, DNS 15 myn bu, SWW 10 myn bu, SRW up 25 myn bu and durum lost 10 myn bu. One of the biggest/ more interesting things from the report in regards to wheat was the acreage. USDA has winter wheat acres up 10% to 41 myn acres. If you have been keeping score, you know about the crop condition of the HRW. SRW acres were up 47% to 7.8 myn acres.eventually this ought to put at least a little pressure on the Chicago futures. SWW acres are rated up 4% to 3.7 myn acres. SEE ATTACHED S&D report.
SK now estimates losses due to FMD (Foot and Mouth Disease) at over $1 byn.
***Didja Know: If you are a citizen of Kentucky, you are required to take a bath at least once per year. The state with the highest percentage of people who walk to work: ALASKA. The average cost to raise a dog to age 11 is $6400. The maximum speed a raindrop can fall (without the aid of wind) is about 18 mph.