Grain Market Report 17Feb2010

Tanner Sheahan
CPS Tangent

Wheat has fallen off about $0.20/bu since Tuesday.  Prompt prices are running $8.45-$8.60 from now through May and $8.40-$8.45 for post harvest.  New crop for next year is still hanging in there at $7.83.  As a reminder, you can view Dan's complete grain market report at the PGG Country website.

Our own Larry Talmage of CPS in Plymouth, Washington will be speaking at the statewide marketing meeting Dan mentions in his email today.  Larry is giving an overview of the fertilizer market as a whole; where it's going, what's driving it, and what producers can/may expect to see in the future.  Should be a good presentation.

Here's an interesting article I stumbled across about a solar storm happening in the last couple days.  The radiation from that solar flare will be hitting the earth today.  It's the most powerful solar storm since December 2006.  The radiation from that 06 storm hit the earth's geomagnetic field and was strong enough to disrupt GPS systems...crazy stuff.


Unrest continues in the Mid East…Bahrain, Yemen (still), Iran. Iranian gov’t at first praised the protests, now uses tear gas and batons to break up crowds. FWIW…per capita income in Egypt averages only $2070./
           USDA baseline has 2011 corn acres est at only 3.8 myn acres…at trendline yields that would gain about 538 myn bu…but at current usage, our stocks going into 2012 would NEGATIVE…we either need more acres or reduced usage. By the way the US uses 15% of the world’s corn to produce ethanol. Dec ethanol exports were at 72 myn gallons, 4x last year. India bought 9.9 myn gallons and get this the UAE imported 13.8 myn gallons, Canada 15.2 myn and the EU 15 myn gallons. DDG exports are up 30% vs. last year.

Statewide marketing meeting this morning…hope to see you there!
           World food prices are up an average of 29% in the last 12 months….FWIW that puts the average px of food +3% vs. levels from 2008. Export sales were strong. Corn sales totaled 46 myn bu, and wheat sales were also strong at 26.6 myn bu. Japan was in last night and bot 4 myn bu of US wheat. One result of hard price correction was Egypt came in and tendered. They booked 6.6 myn bu of US wheat. 4.4 myn bu of US SRW and 2.2 SWW. USDA also announced a sale of 3.6 myn bu to Iraq. So world wheat trade continues while the specs take profits and consolidate. Again, expect lots of volatility as we move forward.
           USDA came out with some ‘estimated’ planted acreage the other day. It will be very interesting to compare these estimates to the ‘Prospective Plantings’ report that will come out on 3/31. That report will of course be based in large part on farmer surveys that will be sent out shortly. The ‘early’ estimates have 92 myn acres of corn (which we know will not be enough based on current usage), 57 myn acres of wheat (about 3 myn more than last year), 78 myn acres of beans and 12.8 myn acres of cotton. The one thing that is almost a certainty is that cotton acres will not be displaced.
           China’s CNGOIC estimated that the bean crop production will be unch’d at 15.2 myn bu, and is expecting 54 myn mt in imports…vs. 50.3 myn bu last year. The USDA is expecting they will need 57 myn mt. Mexican gov’t says that they will replant 123m acres of corn that ‘froze’ out.
           This morning ethanol production showed the first signs of slowing. This weeks production was 893m bbls/ day vs. last weeks 900m bbls/ day and 922m bbl/day.