Updated Loveland Connection

Joe Moade
CPS Tangent

I have recently updated the "The Loveland Connection" page.
If you are looking for a Label, MSDS sheet, or just some additional information on a particular LPI product this is the place to look.  As always your CPS team is available to answer any product questions you may have.


 

Aerial Imagery

Bob Schroeder
CPS Tangent

Time to order your imagery for the current growing season.  The zone maps created from the imagery will allow you to make variable rate applications of growth regulators, fungicides, and give you the birds-eye view of your fields and crops for making management decisions.  Flights are being set up weekly through the growing season.  Contact your CPS crop advisor to schedule your shots.

Hyslop Field Day

http://cropandsoil.oregonstate.edu/sites/default/files/2011HyslopAgenda.pdf
Bob Schroeder
CPS Tangent

Mark your calendar


Hyslop Field Day

Wednesday, May 25, 2011 8:00 AM - 4:00 PM

Lunch Provided by the OSU Crops Club

Campus Location:
Off Campus
Other Location:
Hyslop Farm
City:
Corvallis
State:
OR
Cost:
Free
Contact:
Mike Flowers or Andy Hulting
Contact Phone:
541-737-9940 or 541-737-5098
Contact Email:
andrew.hulting at oregonstate.edu
Contact Department:
Crop and Soil Science

Apology for Troubles Loading the Blog

Tanner Sheahan
CPS Tangent

Apparently there has been some trouble loading the blog.  The hit counter I was using from SiteMeter was throwing up a red flag for some people using MS Internet Explorer.  I don't use IE at all so I didn't realize there was a problem until today.  Firefox and Chrome have always loaded the blog just fine for me.

I have replaced the SiteMeter hit counter with the stock "Total Pageviews" counter from Blogger and it has seemed to fix the problem.  So, I apologize to those who have had issues loading the blog.  There shouldn't be any more problems but IF THERE IS, please let me know.

My email:
tanner.sheahan@cpsagu.com

Alion Approved by EPA

Tanner Sheahan
CPS Tangent

The much anticipated Alion herbicide from Bayer Crop Science has received its first federal label for Citrus/Stone/Pome Fruit, Tree Nuts and Pistachios.  You may remember the plots we've been looking at for the past year in grass seed production and the video of Barry Duerk talking about this chemistry.  This chemical will be a good addition to the toolbox in the future.  It is a very strong pre-emergent herbicide.

Here is a link to the new label for Alion Herbicide.

CPS, OSU, and Bayer are working on research data to back a grass seed label for Alion but it will be a couple years before all that goes through.  If you would like to see some plot work or talk about research data and future uses for this product talk with your CPS Fieldman.

Corn Article and Market Report

Jason Bennett
CPS Tangent

Another article on corn, take a read.

Wheat is back up over $8 again through harvest with Nov/Dec at $8.25.  New crop for next year is $7.80, the highest we've seen in a while.  Here's Dan's report:

19Apr2011

  Straight north…that’s where the markets are headed today. They opened much stronger and never looked back. Red wheat futures are up 20 to 25, Chic is up 15-20 and corn is ‘tagging’ along. Markets are gaining a ton of weather premium again today. Yesterday’s crop progress showed: corn planted is at 7% vs. 16% last year (8% on the 5 year though). Winter wheat conditions are terrible with only 36% of the US crop G-Ex vs. 69% last year. Ks was down 3%, Okie down 4, while Colo (only place left for them was up) went up 6% and Neb was up 7%. Without a doubt the soft wheats are carrying the biggest % of the winter crop scores. White winter wheat states are rated at 84% G-Ex. Spring wheat plantings are rated 5% vs. 18% last year (not much will get done this week). Biggest spring wheat state (ND) is at zero. The forecast high in the Montana wheat belt this week is: low 40’s. Illinois is seeing record snowfall, just got off the phone, and it is snowing in Nebraska. For the most part, the US will see the same weather patterns in the next 6-10 as we have all year long so far. Depending on who you talk to, locally we are between 2-3 weeks behind ‘normal’ whatever that is.
               Russian plantings are running WAY WAY behind. Their spring plantings are at 50% of last years levels PLUS they have an additional 12.4 myn acres to plant (that didn’t get planted last year). Canada is already 2-3 weeks behind. When your growing season is as short as Canada’s you can’t really afford to lose many growing days. Dry weather in the UK, EU, France, Germany is not quite yet at the ‘critical stage’, but they are warming it up….the news has made it to the stove top, but its still on the back burner. Overnight China sold 4.1 myn bu of feed wheat from their reserves, that makes 12.9 myn bu since last month. So far this marketing year, China has sold an estimated 6 myn mt of ‘milling grade’ wheat and huge discounts to millers, with the requirement that the discounts flow through to the end flour price. Just another example of their on going inflation battle.

  ***Didja Know: The most expensive wedding on record was in Dubai in 1981…at a cool $44myn. Actually there were only 2 people that signed the Declaration of Independence on 7/4/76: John Hancock and Charles Thomson…most of the rest of signatures were added on 8/2, with the last signature added 5 years later. “The older you get, the better you get, unless you’re a banana” Betty White…”The paradox of success is what you where you are, won’t keep you where you are” Charles Handy.
18Apr2011

  Markets were called higher, opened up 4-5, set back a tad then snapped to plus 30’s on wheaties and up a dime on n/c corn, which is where we are right now. Export inspection report showed: Wheat; 35.7 myn bu (strong shipment numbers). Puts us at 1.06 byn bu for the year, but with 5 weeks to go in this marketing year, and 214 myn bu to ship to hit USDA numbers, it doesn’t look like we will get there (42.8 myn bu/ week). C/o will grow and then there are always the possibility of cancellations especially as futures surge. Corn shipments were 32 myn bu or 1.077 byn bu on the year. 19 weeks left mean that we need to average 46 myn bu/ week to hit USDA (also not looking good). Any increase in corn c/o will be appreciated by the market though. We continue to watch the o/c, n/c corn spread come together. COT report showed the specs bought corn early and often last week, and increased their positions by 180 myn bu. Weather man says more of the same…meaning: ECB will see rain and snow as far south as Illinois. Midwest will also see rain and snow. Red River has crested, with huge flooding, but no major surprises. Between rain and snow in the upper Midwest they will get 1 – 1 ½” of precip this week…little or no field work will happen, snow could make it as far south as Nebraska. For the S. Plains….no relief. Market is seeing “late spring, slow plantings” which almost always translates into lower yields.
               China raised their bank reserves again (4th time this year) effectively taking another $50byn out of the economy. Wea man says the Yangtze region will get rain, but it will remain dry up north…still no relief for them either. Chinese gov’t will auction off another 15 myn bu of ‘milling’ grade wheat, and in an effort to reduce corn demand (industrial use up 11% vs. lyr), will limit industrial plants to ’09 levels and then charge them a VAT on production. Ukraine has replaced their export quota system with a ‘duty’ system: its 9% on wheat and 12% on corn. Russia says export ban will remain till fall, but MAY consider exceptions earlier. All of this against a backdrop of wheat exports from India/ Paki. Indian/ Paki wheat will likely be low quality, but will displace some demand today. WATCH Europe…we are getting ‘dry’ reports from Euro. This market will be ultra sensitive to any negative weather news.

***Didja Know: Chinese were using aluminum in 300 ad, the west didn’t start using until 1827. About 7,000 couples get married/ day in the US. The ‘average’ wedding costs about $100/ guest.

Wheat Falls Off Some, Market Pressures

Tanner Sheahan
CPS Tangent

Wheat has taken a bit of a dip this week with a lot of "market stuff" happening...that's a technical term.  Today wheat prices to Portland start at $7.85 right now, drop to $7.70 for July/August, and climb back up to $7.90 by the end of the year.  New crop for 2012 is at $7.39 which is not a bad outlook.  Here are a couple of Dan's commodity reports explaining some of the "market stuff."

15Apr2011

 Gold is up, grains were stronger overnight and then hit sell pressure/ profit taking again this morning. Markets opened sharply lower, traded back to even and are now settling in with nearby corn down 9 and n/c corn off a penny or so. Wheats are the opposite with o/c wheat actually trading higher and n/c wheat futures lower (LOTS and LOTS of spread trading activity). Even though our red wheat areas are being flooded/ late plantings (up north…Red River is expected to have 2nd highest crest in last 150 years) and dry/ burning up and blowing away down south, the futures are off 4-5. Carries in the market indicate that the commercials are NOT too concerned about any shortage of supplies any time soon (S&D’s say that US will carry over very large stocks with stocks : use of 30%, 35%, 48% and 30% for HRW, DNS, SRW, SWW respectively. Again no real shortage of wheat, but a shortage of good quality wheat. An estimated 1 myn acres of Texas has burned, with some areas of Tx only rec’ing 2% of normal precip since 10/1. 100% of the state is in some sort of drought emergency. Okie is nearly as bad. Weather man will stick by earlier forecast and says more rain/ cool for the corn belt (more planting/ field delays) and not much relief for southern plains…BUT they may get frost this weekend!
             Overnite Paris wheat was lower and SK booked 1 cargo of US corn, passing on the 2nd account of px. India sold wheat to Bang, and Aussie sold feed wheat to Philippines (who would normally be taking Indian corn, but passed account of px). Brazil’s SAFRA says rains didn’t harm yields as much as thought, and that rains helped outlying areas much more than losses in flooded areas (rain makes grain). China says food inflation is currently at 11.7%, housing at 6.6%. Indian gov’t rates their inflation at 9%. They also said they expect a record wheat harvest of 84 myn mt. Question is how much will rot under tarps? They want to have 44 myn mt of rice/ wheat in reserves which is twice normal levels…remember all this is happening in a country where 37% of population is below poverty levels, and there never seems to be enough to eat. Egyptian gov’t has allocated $1.7 byn to slow food inflation.
***Didja Know: The ‘average’ grocery store has as many as 30,000 different items (2x as much as store might carry 20 years ago). If you took all the junk mail that floats through the US system everyday, it would/ could produce enough energy to heat 250,000 homes.
14Apr2011

 Heavy selloff Tuesday washed an estimated 40m cak from the grain pits. Weather man sez more rain/ cold for the majority of the corn belt. Japan tendered for a bunch of feed grains (1.8 myn bu of wheat and 9.1 myn bly, but also booked 5.4 myn wheat last night (1/2 was DNS the rest split between SWW and HRW). After mostly a breather yesterday, the funds are back to the ‘sell’ mode again this morning. Export sales were at the high end of expectation for corn at 33.4 myn bu and mid range for wheat at 16.3 myn bu.
               FYI, some Ethanol facts from EIA: US exported 59.7 myn gallons in Feb. That is up 4% vs. Jan and 3 times last year levels. 18 myn gal went to the EU, 16 myn gal to the UAE, 15 myn to Canada and 2.6 to Brazil. Weak $$ helps exports…but the EIA also says that ethanol inventories are at record high levels.
             China cancelled at least 3 cargo’s of beans from SAM and the rumor has them considering 10 more. Beijing sold 3 myn mt of beans (1 months crush) in last auction. Brazilian farmers are storing beans in expectations of higher prices. WA is still very dry. Weather man sez the precip for the next 3 months will be less than ave. Last year WA produced 19% of the Aussie crop, where in a normal year they would do about 40%. Here are some of the latest 2011 Aussie wheat prod est’s: Rabobank is guessing 25 myn mt (down 4.9% from this years 26.9). ABARE has the crop at 24.3 myn mt and ACF (Aussie Crop Forcasters) 27.1 myn mt…but remember these are based on a crop not yet planted.
             BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) credits price volatility and higher prices on ‘excess’ money/ speculation. EU Parliament opened the door for individual countries to continue bans on GMO, saying they ought to be able to ban GMO to protect local plants, habitats, alt farming practices. Ukraine is estimating they will be able to double wheat exports to 20-23 myn mt. For now Russia is staying with a 80-88 myn mt crop and the rumor is they will/ may lift exports this fall (October)? They did say that c/o stocks were 8 myn mt higher than thought. 5 myn more was found in storage and farmers are being credited/ blamed for rat holing another 3 myn mt.

***Didja Know: According to latest NASS, Oregon Winter wheat, corn acres will be unch’d from last year, and spring wheat acres will be up 30m acres. Hay acres will be down 45m acres. 

Wheat Prices and Commodity Report

Tanner Sheahan
CPS Tangent

Wheat has been over $8 for several days now.  Right now it's $8.05-$8.15 with a big dip in July down to $7.85.  I'd say they don't want wheat delivered in July...Futures for next year are a respectable $7.55.  Here's a couple of the last commodity reports from Dan Steiner of Pendleton Grain Growers.

11April2011

Biggest news from the USDA reports was that they did NOT reduce corn carryouts as expected. Traders were thinking corn carryouts would be as low as 586 myn bu…USDA simply left them unchanged. Wheat carryouts were reduced marginally. All in all it was a pretty benign report. With Corn, feed usage was reduced by 50 myn bu, but ethanol was increased by the same amount, other than that it looks pretty much like last months report. The only changes to the US wheat S&D’s were a slight increase in wheat for ‘seed’ usage. See attached S&D’s. World carryout numbers were increased incrementally. COT report had some value this am, as it confirms price action from last 10 days: Specs were ACTIVE buying 50 myn bu of Chic wheat, 42 myn bu of HRW, and 180 myn bu of corn. Funds are holding pat. Spec position on Chic Wheat is only 120 myn bu so it is not ‘burdensome’. Their corn position is actually getting big enough to warrant watching at 1.6 byn bu. (they spent 13 of the last 18 weeks with positions as large as 2.0 byn.
               Weather man sez S. plains rec’d light precip, but now it will be dry the rest of the week, with another ‘freeze’ warning out for this weekend. Red River crested, and there have been tractor sightings as far north as Minnie. Northern tier states are expected to be cold/ wet. Down south cold/ dry.
               Euro Central Bank raised interest 1/4 %, China also continues to ratchet up their rates, and there is rumor that the Fed will do the same after they get done with QE2 in June on concerns of inflation. Bank of Eng and Japan will leave their rates unch’d. Timing of these changes can really impact the value of the $.
             China will auction off 18 myn bu of poor ‘Q’ feed wheat this week and COFCO says that they expect Chinese crushers may cancel some bean purchases later this year as margins are very slim.

***Didja Know: “Do not squander time, for that is the stuff life is made of” Benjamin Franklin. Superstitious? On the back of the $1, there are 13 steps on the pyramid, 13 stars on the eagles head, 13 arrows, and 13 leaves on the olive branch. All months that start on Sunday will have a Friday the 13th (next month). Some ‘numerologists’ say 13 gets a bum rap because of all the associations with 12: Months in a year, signs of the zodiac, gods of Olympus, 12 apostles of Christ (referring to the original 12) New Testament lists many more. 12 tribes of Israel, 12 eggs in a dozen etc. Mark Twain once was the 13th guest to arrive at a dinner…he said it was ‘bad luck’, because there was only enough food for 12.
7 April 2011

Grain futures in all exchanges traded higher overnite lending support for a strong start this morning. All grains were up initially in opening trade, but quickly gave in and are trading lower now. Corn is off a couple, while wheats are off 10 to 15 in all exchanges/ delivery periods. Overnite there was another 4 myn bu corn sale (unknown dest…China?). Didja KNOW: Corn has set 2 all time HIGHS already this week. Will we see a 3rd? Sales reports this morning were; Corn: trade expected something from 21.6-33.4 myn bu. We came in at the high end of 31.8 myn bu. 7 myn bu was n/c however. So sales remain ‘brisk’. Average trade guess for carryout stocks of corn tomorrow is only 595 myn bu (could easily be lower)…watch for a bullish number tomorrow. Wheat sales were also strong with 26.5 myn bu (trade was thinking 12.8 to 16.5 myn bu. 9.7 myn bu of it was n/c. Remember though that our sales are not the problem…it is actual shipments which are lagging, and if they don’t pick up, wheat carryout stocks will increase accordingly. Which brings us to tomorrow’s estimate of 861 myn bu c/o, which is about 5.6 myn mt higher than ‘average’.
               USDA is considering budget cuts that may result from whatever new budget is formed. So they are considering cutting the weekly crop reports. This would include; planting progress, crop development, harvest progress, crop condition etc. The market already does this on its own anyway, where USDA’s value was, they were seen as a 3rd party or independent analyst. Accuracy in any of these type of reports can be debated, so isn’t really an issue. So if it happens what’s next? It would put a premium on qualified/ quality reporting service or network. Obviously the large ‘spreadout’ multinationals would enjoy at least an initial advantage.
             A little more ‘detail’ from recent ‘prospective’ plantings report: So where did the big increases in acres come from? An area of concern: Minnie said they would increase corn acres 3%, ND 22% and SD 19%. If you have been paying attention, they will not be planting corn anytime soon. By the way La Nina finished March with an SOI of 18.6…in fact on 3/30 the SOI was 28.6. So it remains stubbornly in place.
***Didja Know: Russia USED to be the world’s #3 wheat exporter (before banning exports last year). PM Putin says Russia is eager to restore its credibility as a grain supplier to the world. There are so many people of ‘Scandinavian’ descent in Minnesota, that Scandinavia has a holiday called ‘Minnesota Day’ in August?       
 5 April 2011

Markets are taking a breather this morning. Not really any profit taking even though corn is up about $1 the last 3 days. This market looks like it will be well supported at least until more is known about the spring plantings world wide and we see solid evidence of rationing. We did get the first official USDA crop scores yesterday, and they didn’t disappoint. Overall 32% of the US crop is rated P-VP, and 37% G-Ex. As is usually the case, the devil is in the details. HRW: Kansas 34% P-VP/ 31% G-Ex/ G-Ex is down 38% vs. last year. OK 51% P-VP/ 16% G-Ex/ G-Ex is down 53% vs. lyr. Tx 61% P-VP/ 12% G-EX/ G-Ex down 48%. SRW showed VERY strong ratings: Ill 12% P-VP/ 55% G-Ex/ +26% vs. lyr. Indiana is 7% V-VP/ 61% G-EX. Ohio is 4% V-VP/ 64% G-Ex. SWW ratings: Or is 1% P-VP/ 67% G-Ex with G-Ex up 12% vs. lyr. WA is 2% P-VP/ 82% G-Ex, with G-EX up 9%. Id is 3% P-VP with an 82% G-Ex. The BAD news is in. The market we see today, reflects the premium from these scores. Any improvement (how much worse can they get?) will be price negative…to a degree depending on corn. Red River valley is still expected to challenge record flood levels. Snow pack will be gone from most areas of the US by the end of the week, but Canada will still have a layer of the white stuff.
               Shipment report showed a strong 44 myn bu of corn shipped and a decent 29.5 myn bu of wheat. USDA did report a sale of 4 myn bu of corn to ‘unknown’ this morning. Ethanol, DDG’s and corn export prices all seem pretty well supported this morning. Argie is working on a protocol to ship up to 2 myn mt of corn to China. Whether China buys corn from Argie or US origin doesn’t change the world S&D’s its bullish either way. With carryouts now estimated lower than 500 myn bu, you have to wonder just how close to zero you can get. One thing about it, it ought to give the market a great opportunity to do inventory!
               No major weather updates from yesterday. Argie is gonna git great weather. Aussie needs rain, especially in the west. They will get some showers, but from what I read it won’t be enough to do much to alleviate the drought. Snow cover will leave most of the CIS, but more heavy weather will cover up large areas from the Black Sea region to the Caspian (the ‘Stans’). Ukraine Ag Minister says they expect grain production of 44.7 myn mt up 5.5 myn mt from last year…wheat will be about 20.5 myn mt up 3.3 vs. last year.

***Didja Know: Albert Einstein had an IQ of 160. Korean Kim Ung-Yong has the record for  the highest recorded IQ of 210. American bank robber ‘Pretty Boy Floyd’ started by robbing a grocery store at the age of 14.